Japan’s birth rate is declining

Last year, Japan saw its lowest number of babies born in 125 years. The country’s demographic crisis is deepening.

Despite government efforts, the decline continues. It’s a growing challenge with no easy solution in sight. Japan’s birth rate hit a record low in 2024, with just 720,988 babies born. It’s the ninth straight year of decline.

Births dropped 5% despite government efforts to encourage families. Meanwhile, deaths reached 1.62 million—more than double the number of newborns. The population is shrinking fast, and the crisis is only growing.

Japan: Year 2025 Problem

Fewer marriages in recent years are a big reason behind Japan’s falling birth rate. The COVID-19 pandemic played a major role, says economist Takumi Fujinami.

In 2024, marriages rose slightly by 2.2% to 499,999. But that’s after sharp declines, like a 12.7% drop in 2020. The impact is still being felt.

Many people think government incentives are insufficient to alleviate the financial and social costs of having children, even in the face of policies that encourage births. Similarly, many young people are reluctant to start families because of the high cost of living, the high expense of daycare, and the instability of their jobs.

The decline in births may continue into 2025, warns economist Takumi Fujinami. In Japan, unlike in some Western countries, very few babies are born outside of marriage. This makes the link between marriages and births even stronger.

When asked about the new demographic data, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pointed to the rise in marriages.

“We need to be aware the trend of falling births has not been arrested. But the number of marriages posted an increase. Given close ties between the number of marriages and the number of births, we should focus on this aspect as well,” he said.

Japan’s falling birth rate contrasts with South Korea

In contrast to Japan’s declining birth rate, South Korea said on Wednesday that its fertility rate had increased for the first time in nine years, aided by a spike in weddings.

This week’s news that South Korea’s fertility rate increased from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024 raised hopes that the country’s demographic problem may end.

After the pandemic, some demographic experts had predicted a pent-up baby boom in Japan, but the drop in births has persisted unchecked.

According to the most available data, the average number of children a woman in Japan is anticipated to have over her reproductive life was 1.20 in 2023.

According to a 2011 National Institute of Population and Social Security Research report, it would take until 2039 for the number of births to drop to 720,000.

Fujinami says it’s too soon to compare Japan and South Korea. But both need better job opportunities and gender equality to encourage marriage and parenthood.

Experts say South Korea’s progress comes from strong government support—better work-life balance, childcare, housing, and even businesses promoting parenthood.