Why the World Might See Two Dalai Lamas Soon

The Dalai Lama’s recent announcement about his succession has raised the possibility of two rival Dalai Lamas. As he nears his 90th birthday, the spiritual leader declared that only his India-based Gaden Phodrang Trust will choose his successor.

This directly challenges China’s claim to control the process. The statement, made on July 2, 2025, sets the stage for a historic clash over Tibetan Buddhist leadership.

Why Two Dalai Lamas?

The Dalai Lama’s decision to entrust his succession to the Gaden Phodrang Trust excludes China, which insists on approving the next Dalai Lama.

China plans to use a Qing dynasty ritual, drawing names from a golden urn, to select its own candidate. This could lead to two Dalai Lamas: one chosen by Tibetan exiles in India and another by Beijing. The Dalai Lama himself acknowledged this, saying, “If two Dalai Lamas come, one from a free country, nobody will trust the one chosen by China.” Such a split could fracture Tibetan Buddhist unity and fuel geopolitical tensions

Historical Roots of the Conflict

The Dalai Lama’s role dates back to the 14th century, with the first Dalai Lama, Gendun Drup, recognized in Tibet. The title signifies the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, believed to be the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the bodhisattva of compassion.

Historically, Dalai Lamas were chosen through mystical signs, visions, and tests by senior monks. China’s involvement began during the Qing dynasty in the 18th century, when it introduced the golden urn ritual to assert control.

This historical precedent fuels China’s claim today, while Tibetans in exile reject it, citing centuries of autonomous tradition

Who Are the Dalai Lamas?

Dalai Lamas are the spiritual and often political leaders of Tibetan Buddhism. The current 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, was born in 1935 in northeastern Tibet and identified as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama at age two.

Each Dalai Lama is believed to be the same soul reborn to guide followers. They lead the Gelug school of Tibetan Buddhism and historically governed Tibet until China’s annexation in 1951. Tenzin Gyatso fled to India in 1959 after a failed uprising, establishing a government-in-exile in Dharamshala

Why the Dalai Lama Matters

The Dalai Lama is a global symbol of peace, compassion, and human rights. Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, Tenzin Gyatso has championed nonviolence and Tibetan autonomy.

His influence extends beyond Buddhism, attracting followers like Richard Gere and Sharon Stone, and meetings with world leaders like Barack Obama. For Tibetans, he embodies their cultural and spiritual identity, resisting China’s efforts to suppress it. His succession is critical to maintaining Tibetan unity and global advocacy for their cause

China’s Role

China views the Dalai Lama as a separatist threatening its control over Tibet. After his July 2025 announcement, Beijing swiftly reiterated that only it can approve the next Dalai Lama, citing historical precedent and Chinese law.

The Chinese Communist Party, officially atheist, has long sought to control Tibetan Buddhism, notably by kidnapping the Dalai Lama’s chosen Panchen Lama in 1995 and installing its own. Beijing’s insistence on controlling the succession aims to weaken Tibetan resistance and legitimize its rule. The Dalai Lama’s rejection of this has sparked outrage in China, escalating tensions

Geopolitics behind it

The possibility of two Dalai Lamas has far-reaching consequences. For Tibetans in exile, a Dalai Lama chosen by the Gaden Phodrang Trust in India ensures spiritual legitimacy and continuity.

However, a Chinese-appointed Dalai Lama could confuse followers and dilute the institution’s global influence. India, hosting the Tibetan government-in-exile, gains diplomatic leverage by supporting the Dalai Lama’s plan.

The U.S. and others have called for China to respect Tibetan religious freedom. The dispute could reshape geopolitical alliances, with Dharamshala emerging as a center of Tibetan spiritual authority

The Dalai Lama’s statement ends years of uncertainty, as he previously hinted he might be the last in the line or choose a successor before his death.

By affirming the Gaden Phodrang Trust’s sole authority, he has set a clear path for Tibetan Buddhists while challenging China’s narrative. As celebrations for his 90th birthday continue in Dharamshala, the world watches a brewing power struggle that could redefine Tibetan identity and global Buddhist influence.

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