Germany considers reintroducing some form of military conscription, questions are growing about whether compulsory military service could undermine its economy. While the revived defense agenda aims to address security needs in the face of rising threats, experts warn that compulsory service may carry high economic and social costs if not carefully designed.
Does Germany Need Conscription to Meet Security Goals?
Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011. Since then, its Bundeswehr has relied entirely on professional volunteers. In response to changing security dynamics including Russia’s war in Ukraine and emerging NATO commitments defense officials are now planning to boost troop numbers from around 180,000 to at least 203,000 by 2029 .
At the core of the debate is whether reinstating conscription is necessary, or whether a voluntary model with better pay and benefits could accomplish recruitment goals without the cost of drafting citizens en masse.
Economic Costs of Mandatory Conscription: How Bad Could It Be?
A detailed economic study by Germany’s ifo Institute warns that compulsory service could reduce the country’s economic output by between €3 billion and €70 billion annually, depending on how broadly it is applied. If every young person were conscripted, output could drop by 1.6% equivalent to nearly €70 billion each year. Even a scaled back model affecting about 25% of the cohort could cost around €17 billion annually.
These losses arise because conscripts lose a year in which they would otherwise pursue education, work, or training delaying the accumulation of skills and income. The impact can follow them for decades, reducing lifetime earnings.
How Would Conscription Affect Key Industries in a Tight Labor Market?
German businesses are already grappling with shortages in fields like healthcare, engineering, and education. If young people are drafted or diverted into service, businesses fear greater competition for skilled workers, intensifying existing labor gaps. Employers warn that even a draft of 5,000 citizens per year, as proposed, could disrupt recruitment and impede economic revival
Germany’s healthcare sector is particularly vulnerable. Reinstating civilian service would reduce the stream of youth entering nursing and medical training, worsening staffing shortages in hospitals and care homes. Research suggests this could cost up to €1.5 billion annually in health-care training and integration costs alone.
